Beware of the The FED Tapering, they said. Yes, in this beginning of 2014 our attention is distracted by this policy; no more "quantitative easing". We can say that this tapering is able to affect the investment climate including the forex  trading. To me, such policy will change the trendline when it has big impact. That's why we must keep in touch with latest news. I myself pay a great attention especially to an economic policies issued by US government.

But, don't forget about the history of the trendline itself. Learning historical data of a pair is also necessary.
Look at the EUR/USDVchart below:



You can see that EUR/USD has various exits change within one year only. Started from 1.24 and ended with 1.35. Imagine how many pips you can gain. I congratulate you if you bought your EUR/USD. Now, the price is still touching such a high price, between 1.34-1.37.

Let's get back to several years ago. Hmmm, I'd like to go to first quarter of 2010 when the price touched 1.19, how low! And then, look at 2011. The price almost touched 1.5. So, between 2010-2011, EUR/USD made more than 3000 pips. Some professional traders said by imagining the currency at a price before, will be much easier to imagine that happening again. Well, I'm not patient to see what will happen in the end of this year.