6:51 PM
AGHA
As we know. US Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most used indicator to predict the movement of a pair for its effectiveness. Since 2013 comes to the end, I'd like to review the series of 2013 US NFP data and the relation to USD value.
First, let’s make a chart of NFP data along this 2013. Based what I got
from fxstreet.com:
Jan
|
119k
|
Feb
|
268k
|
Mar
|
138k
|
Apr
|
165k
|
May
|
176k
|
Jun
|
188k
|
Jul
|
104k
|
Aug
|
193k
|
Sep
|
180k
|
Oct
|
163k
|
Nov
|
204k
|
Some of 2013 happenings can be interpreted to
measure the change of US Dollar; stimulus cut-off, tax relief cut-off, balance
of payment deficit, government shut-down, etc. that put the US Dollar in worse
state. No wonder if EUR and GBP gets stronger against USD this year.
The Number of NFP Data couldn’t touch 200k anymore
since February data release. Luckily, November gave a big smile for USD to move
up. That’s why Indonesian Rupiah got worse against USD. If we assume that
Christmas and New Year holiday can relieve the number of unemployment, then we
could be optimistic USD will raise and December NFP Data as well.
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