US NFP of 2013: What Will December Be?

As we know. US Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most used indicator to predict the movement of a pair for its effectiveness. Since 2013 comes to the end, I'd like to review the series of 2013 US NFP data and the relation to USD value.
 

First, let’s make a chart of  NFP data along this 2013. Based what I got from fxstreet.com:

Jan	119k
Feb	268k
Mar	138k
Apr	165k
May	176k
Jun	188k
Jul	104k
Aug	193k
Sep	180k
Oct	163k
Nov	204k

Some of 2013 happenings can be interpreted to measure the change of US Dollar; stimulus cut-off, tax relief cut-off, balance of payment deficit, government shut-down, etc. that put the US Dollar in worse state. No wonder if EUR and GBP gets stronger against USD this year.

The Number of NFP Data couldn’t touch 200k anymore since February data release. Luckily, November gave a big smile for USD to move up. That’s why Indonesian Rupiah got worse against USD. If we assume that Christmas and New Year holiday can relieve the number of unemployment, then we could be optimistic USD will raise and December NFP Data as well.

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WELCOME TO ISLAMIC ECONOMIC ERA

This month I bring you a good news from my beloved Yogyakarta. Yes, in the end of the Islamic Economic Seminar in UNY, Yogyakarta, we believe that someday Indonesia will reach the islamic economic era. As we know, this economic policy won't allow you to bring interest in the system that will give us the best service in controlling financial health (it's true).

On September 22nd 2013, UNY held one of the greatest Islamic economic seminar in Yogyakarta. This hopefully represented the new Indonesia economic movement. Mr. Dumairy and Mr. Masyhudi attended as a speaker. They emphasized that sharia economic had to be put in our daily economic activity. Unfortunately, the government still limit the number of national project which is held by sharia bank. That's why sharia banking doesn't grow fast.

Based on why happened in 1998, When Indonesia was engulfed by the global economic crisis, when the overall Indonesia banking were collapsed, BANK MUAMALAT, as the first "pure" sharia bank in Indonesia, still stood upright, like no others. It was a proof that sharia banking would always be operational even if crisis struck.

Well, all we can hope is, sharia economic system will have a significant role in developing Indonesia. Indonesia is a country with the largest number of moslem. So, there's no doubt to make it possible.

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WHAT'S WRONG WITH YOU, RUPIAH?

It's been a great news recently. Rupiah, Indonesia's beloved currency, is devaluing against Dollar. Rupiah touched Rp 11.200,- against Dollar several days ago. I'm afraid that 2008 global crisis will happen again when Rupiah even touched Rp 12.000,- . Some said it was because US in good economic state that make Asia in poor economic state especially South East Asia. But the point is, Indonesia still import too many goods.

So, what effects could be made by the depressing Rupiah?

1. The price of all imported goods definitely rise; cars, computers and other gadgets, and even most of daily basic needs.
2. Indonesia Stock Exchange is also devaluing.
3. Indonesia import several raw materials. The price moves up then.
4. With expensive raw material, producitivity decreases.
5. Productivity decreases, the number of unemployment rises.
6. Rising bank rate may possibly increases the number of Non Performing Loan.

Finally, the government has made some solutions such as:
- Encourage all councillors to exchange their dollar to Rupiah.
- Tell the Bank Indonesia to increase the bank rate.
- Less import, More export. The government give additional deduction tax for certain exporter.
- Add more tax for imported goods.

In my opinion, we should be more productive. I've been planting chilli on my own to prove that we can still be productive. I know it's too naive. But if we all can plant at least, one of our daily basic needs, it means we depend on imported goods no more. Well, we hope the best for our country so we've got to do the best, too.

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